KERRY LEADS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

The latest WMUR-TV/UNH Survey Center poll has John Kerry with a narrow lead in New Hampshire. Kerry stands at 50%, Bush at 46%. That's just outside the 3.6% margin of error for this poll. Their last poll, taken earlier in the month, had Bush with a narrow lead. Reading through the numbers, which also show Governor Benson with a narrow lead over Democratic challenger John Lynch, I can only find one area that seems a bit suspect. The survey shows Kerry with a substantial lead in the North Country, 57%-38%. While economic hardship in places like Berlin might explain that number, typically the North Country, like other rural areas in America, is conservative. Coos county went for Bush last time, although narrowly. The numbers relative to the state's entire population might make the disparity irrelevant, however. My gut tells me the result in New Hampshire will be close, but that Bush will prevail.