WHO WILL WIN? FLIP A COIN.

Former Clinton political consultant Dick Morris has it right about why it's impossible to know what will happen in this election.

The difficulties of accurately surveying presidential prospects have become ever more daunting with each new election cycle. The growing difficulties account for the wide fluctuations in survey data.

The main variant in the data relates to the likelihood of a person actually voting. With half of the potential electorate normally forsaking the franchise, pollsters have great difficulty in identifying who will actually participate and weeding out the real voters from those who will stay home.
Most turnout models developed in recent years are predicated on the relatively low turnouts in recent U.S. elections. In 2000, for example, only about half of those who were eligible actually cast ballots. Even in a "high turnout year" like 1992, just 53 percent of the voting-age population actually cast ballots.

But every indication is that this year's turnout will dwarf our recent experiences. With record numbers of new voters coming on the rolls and get-out-the-vote operations generously funded by "independent" political committees released from any effective controls by the so-called campaign-finance reform, participation is likely to soar. The massive funding of these supposedly non-partisan political committees has empowered massive drives to sign up new voters and to generate a high turnout.

The closeness of the 2000 election is generating new voters. With party feelings approaching fever pitch as the election nears and emotional issues like terrorism, gay marriage, recession and the like dominate the campaign, turnout seems likely to be very, very high.

The truth is, no modern pollster really has any idea what to expect if turnout reaches the high 50s or closes in on 60 percent.

Prepare to be shocked and amazed on election night, one way or the other.