WHY KERRY MIGHT WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE

Amidst all the noise emanating from the punditocracy over the last few months as this election cycle grinds on to its conclusion one hears a question regarding scenic New Hampshire; Why is George Bush trailing in an overwhelmingly Republican state? The answer may be difficult to find for many of the mainstream press whose experience of our little state is limited to their week-long stay (mostly in Manchester) every four years. But for us locals, the reasons seem pretty clear. While it is true that New Hampshire's State House has been dominated by Republicans for over a century (the House of Representatives has not had a Democratic majority since the 19th Century, and the State Senate was run by Democrats only for two short periods in the 20th), and the congressional delegation sees a Democrat only from time-to-time, what is missed by many of the so-called experts is the make-up of many of our Republicans. Conservatives in this state call many of their fellow Republicans RINOs, which stands for "Republican in Name Only". These are folks who are intellectually quite close to the Bill Clinton-John Kerry ideology when it comes to Foreign Policy, and oftentimes on Domestic issues as well. Many consider themselves old-fashioned Rockefeller Republicans. Some are turned off by the Christian Right (their term), others by the Newt Gingrich-style Conservatives who would cut the size of government (their view). Their existence makes any analysis of this state using voter registration figures that indicate party identification problematic at best. Outsiders typically make judgements about New Hampshire politics because of the larger-than-life personalities that have walked throught the state's history. Governor Mel Thompson, Union Leader publishers Bill and Nacky Loeb, Pat Buchanan, and so on. None of these folks ever represented the majority of the state's citizens (except Mel Thompson, and that was over 20 years ago), and certainly not all Republicans. New Hampshire is a state that now reflects the rest of the nation. Bitterly divided over the war in Iraq, social issues like abortion, and tax and spend policies on the Federal level. Granite Staters continue to send people to their legislature and to the Governor's office based on a few bed-rock local issues, most importantly the presence or absence of a state income tax. The only Democrat to hold the Governor's office in the last 20 years, Jeanne Shaheen, did so because she opposed a state income tax. The current Governor, Craig Benson, won an overwhelming victory two years ago because, as an anti-income tax candidate, he faced an avowed income tax supporter. The Democrat candidate for Governor this year, John Lynch, is giving Benson a run this year only because Lynch doesn't support an income tax and lots of folks don't care much for Benson (I still think Benson will win, though). The bottom line....throw out the party-identification numbers. While Bush will still win a sizeable number of Republicans, many will vote for John Kerry, while almost all Democrats in this state will go Kerry's way. Voter turnout and how Independents vote will make the difference here. Right now, all the polling suggest a close race with a slight advantage for Kerry. George Bush may need some reverse coattails from Governor Benson. Unfortuntately for the President, Benson's campaign hasn't yet provided them. With two weeks to go, it still looks like John Kerry will win New Hampshire.