BEWARE THE DRAGON

It seems there is a new story every week that bolsters my view about Chinese expansionism. Historically, when a nation is preparing for aggressive war, it takes certain steps to prepare itself for action. China has made military, economic, and legal steps to prepare for the conquest of Taiwan. Today, there is news of a new arrangement with a regional power, India. There are also more demonstrations designed, I think, to intimidate another regional power, Japan.

The evidence is mounting. An aggressive military build-up (see the recent Pentagon report which made headlines over the weekend), a new law that requires re-unification with Taiwan even through violent means, the diplomatic securing of flanks (India), all adds up to one thing...the PRC will, at some point in the not-too-distant future, invade Taiwan. I think the only thing the butchers of Beijing are waiting for is word from their military leaders that the assets are in place to get the job done. Then all that will be necessary is the diplomatic pretext, which can be nearly anything, contrived or not.

When will this happen? It could be tomorrow, or ten years from now. But my guess is that it will happen within the next five years (and that is, admittedly, just a wild guess).

What will the U.S. government do? At the moment, with almost our entire Army committed to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, whatever is done militarily will be a U.S. Navy and Air Force show (even if the Army was more available, the conflict would still, in the early stages, belong to the sailors and airmen). Hanging over the decision-maker (the President) will be the specter of nuclear confrontation. Will he (or she) be willing to risk a nuclear exchange to save Taiwan? If the PRC pledges no first-use of nuclear weapons at the commencement of hostilities with Taiwan, will the President still be willing to risk our carriers and planes (and the men and women who crew them) for Taiwan?

I can't see George W. Bush backing down from that fight. But what of a future President? (By the way, you can forget about the U.N., since the PRC has veto power in the Security Council).

We continue to live in interesting times.