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Monday, January 23, 2006

Iranian officials are making belligerent noises once again, warning against referral of their IAEA case to the Security Council. President Ahmadinejad is also courting the Palestinians on his trip to Syria.

The Israelis, meanwhile, are again warning the world that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable, and hinting of possible military action.

Israel's defense minister hinted Saturday that the Jewish state is preparing for military action to stop Iran's nuclear program, but said international diplomacy must be the first course of action.

"Israel will not be able to accept an Iranian nuclear capability and it must have the capability to defend itself, with all that that implies, and this we are preparing," Shaul Mofaz said.


His comments at an academic conference stopped short of overtly threatening a military strike but were likely to add to growing tensions with Iran.

Germany's defense minister said in an interview published Saturday that he is hopeful of a diplomatic solution to the impasse over Iran's nuclear program, but argued that "all options" should remain open.

Asked by the Bild am Sonntag weekly whether the threat of a military solution should remain in place, Franz Josef Jung was quoted as responding: "Yes, we need all options."

Now, that last bit is VERY interesting. Combined with the recent statement of President Chirac of France about his nation's right to respond to terrorist attacks with nuclear weapons against terror-sponsoring states, this may signal a hardening in the attitudes of European governments. I certainly don't recall any such bellicose statements from anyone other than George W. Bush in the recent past, can you? The German and French governments may, at last, be coming to the realization that there is no other way to prevent either a nuclear-armed Iran or pre-emptive Israeli strikes leading to a general war other than to threaten the Iranians with a combined military assault (U.S, U.K., France, Germany and, perhaps, others). While the bulk of such an assault would, of course, be American, Iran would find itself much more isolated if the major European powers were involved in the operation. If the Russians and Chinese merely avert their eyes, Iran would be faced with the destruction of it's nuclear program (and a significant part of its military infrastructure) without getting any benefit, other than the inevitable anti-American demonstrations throughout the Islamic world. Perhaps the French and Germans now realize that the only way to head all of this off is to present a CREDIBLE threat of such unified action. These statements could mark the beginning of that process.

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