BAGHDAD IS THE KEY

Bill Roggio has an excellent post about what he calls the battle for Baghdad.

Baghdad has yet again become the center of gravity for the insurgency. For three years the insurgency attempted to establish its dominance in outlying cities such as Fallujah, Mosul, Tal Afar, Ramadi, Husaybah, Haditha, Samarra, Balad, Taji, Najaf and elsewhere, and failed. Baghdad is now the center of power, the seat and symbol of legitimacy of the new Iraqi government. The all important Iraqi ministries of Interior, Defense, and Oil reside in Baghdad, as does the Coalition command headquarters and the “International Zone”. The media is concentrated in the city as they lack the resources to operate outside the capitol, and are required to maintain a Baghdad office.

Major General Rick Lynch, the spokesman for Multinational Forces Iraq, aptly explains why the insurgency is focusing on the city, and reports on Coalition and Iraqi efforts to reduce the violence in the capitol under Operation Scales of Justice during his March 30 briefing.

Let's talk about Baghdad -- a very, very sensitive time as the Iraqis try to form this national unity government, and it's the time where the enemy is saying, "They have vulnerability. Maybe, just maybe, I can derail the democratic process. I couldn't do it in 2005. I couldn't stop the January elections. I couldn't stop them drafting or ratifying a constitution in October, and I couldn't stop the December elections. So maybe, just maybe, during this period of time, I can inflame sectarian violence and delay the formation of a national unity government."

...the level of violence, or more accurately the perception of the level of violence in Baghdad, is rising. The constant discovery of bodies tortured, maimed, executed and dumped on the roadside is eroding the faith of the residents of Baghdad in the government's ability to provide for their security. Government security forces, particularly the police, are viewed with distrust in some neighborhoods. Militias are both revered and feared. This can be seen in the reporting of Iraqi bloggers Omar and Mohammed, Zayed, Ali, Hammorabi, and Riverbend (despite opinions of each blogger, they essentially paint the same picture of the situation in Baghdad). The media, being concentrated in Baghdad, reports this, and the perception is the security situation in Baghdad represents the security situation in the rest of Iraq.

This couldn't be farther from the truth. Last evening I spoke to Gunnery Sergeant Charles Strong, from Weapons Platoon, Lima Company, 3rd Battalion, 6th Marines. His unit just returned from Iraq, and fought in some of the fiercest battles in western Anbar province over the past year. He explained the Al Qaim region is making remarkable progress, and the problems are more of the nature in getting the disparate Sunni tribes to work together. His story isn't uncommon. Much of Iraq is going through a similar transition, or is relatively peaceful. But none of this matters as long as the insurgency focuses on Baghdad.

That is correct. "None of this matters as long as the insurgency focuses on Baghdad". The battle for Baghdad and, by extension, the battle for Iraq will not be won or lost in Baghdad or in Iraq. The battle will be won or lost here in America. If the President, under the pressure of falling poll numbers, withdraws our troops prematurely, then the battle will be lost. If he keeps levels sufficient to keep Iraq from falling into a civil war, and prevents the Al Qaeda terrorists or Saddamists from taking over, and deters surrounding powers from invading Iraq (like the Syrians did in Lebanon), then the battle can still be won. As Roggio points out, the insurgents now understand that the only way to win is to defeat America politically, and the way to do that is to create carnage and mayhem specifically for the American television audience. I expect the violence to continue, but I hope that U.S. forces can help the Iraqis control the situation enough to get their new government in place.