Michael Novak imagines a world in 2012 with Barack Obama as President, and it isn't a pretty sight.

John McCain imagines a world in 2013 with John McCain as President, and most of our troops out of Iraq.

Gerard Baker says, if you believe the American press, Obama is the Great Redeemer...just like Bobby Kennedy once was, and Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton.

California becomes the second state, after Massachusetts, to legalize gay marriage by judicial decision. As a personal matter, I believe there is no logical, non-religious basis to deny civil marriage to homosexual adults. As a political matter, I believe it is best solved via the political process, rather than through court action, since I also do not believe that civil marriage is a civil right.

President Bush warns against appeasement, and is attacked by the Obama people. I think the Obama folks are better off ignoring the President, as most people have by now concluded that he is a failed President.

Peggy Noonan has it right in this piece in The Wall Street Journal.

What happens to the Republicans in 2008 will likely be dictated by what didn't happen in 2005, and '06, and '07. The moment when the party could have broken, on principle, with the administration – over the thinking behind and the carrying out of the war, over immigration, spending and the size of government – has passed. What two years ago would have been honorable and wise will now look craven. They're stuck.

Mr. Bush has squandered the hard-built paternity of 40 years. But so has the party, and so have its leaders. If they had pushed away for serious reasons, they could have separated the party's fortunes from the president's. This would have left a painfully broken party, but they wouldn't be left with a ruined "brand," as they all say, speaking the language of marketing. And they speak that language because they are marketers, not thinkers. Not serious about policy. Not serious about ideas. And not serious about leadership, only followership.

It all spells D-O-O-M.

But, even with all the gloomy signs, John Fund, also writing in The Wall Street Journal, after describing the extent of the problem, does have one hope...

In 1996, the Democrats had a chance to seize control of the government. Bob Dole was clearly going to lose to a reinvigorated Bill Clinton, and polls showed that GOP control of one or both houses was in jeopardy. Republicans, in control of Congress for two years, were suffering from many of the same problems they are now – an identification with unpopular positions on issues and a relentless Democratic ad campaign designed to undermine their most vulnerable incumbents.

The Republican National Committee decided to take bold action by directly appealing to the public's fondness for divided government and fear of one-party rule. It rook out ads that featured a fortuneteller staring into a crystal ball showing scenes of Biblical devastation, plague and conflict were seen. The announcer warned what could happen if Democrats swept the elections:

"Remember the last time Democrats ran everything? The largest tax increase in history. Government-run health care. More wasteful spending. Who wants that again? Don't let (insert local state) down. Don't let the media stop you from voting. And don't hand Bill Clinton a blank check."

It worked. Republicans gained two seats in the Senate and lost only a handful in the House. Haley Barbour, the then chairman of the RNC and now governor of Mississippi, told me at the time that the ads had stopped the slide in the polls of several vulnerable members and helped boost voter turnout among listless Republicans.

With John McCain at best an even bet to win the White House, Republicans may enter the fall homestretch with the prospect of losing the White House and sinking much further into minority status. It would be better if congressional Republicans finally decided to adopt a coherent message and a bold reform program for this fall's elections. But an alternative may be to emulate their 1996 success and make a direct appeal to voters to keep power divided so that Democrats once again don't have a blank check.

I don't think it will work. In fact, I think the reverse is more likely, with John McCain squeaking out a narrow victory while Republicans get crushed in Congress.