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Sunday, July 13, 2008

H.D.S. Greenway has praise for the author of Clash of Civilizations. Much deserved, as Samuel Huntington has seen history prove him right.

Ralph Peters explains the facts of life when it comes to dealing with tyrants, which is that talk is expensive, in the lives of those under the tyrant's heels. Charles Krauthammer explores a similar theme when considering the recent operation that rescued hostages in Columbia.

Expanding on a popular theme of late, Robert J. Samuelson writes about the gap between reality and the pronouncements of politicians.

Larry Sabato takes a look at the Electoral Map. It still looks good for Obama, but it still gives McCain a healthy chance.

The Democrats in Congress are already considering how they might govern in the event of an Obama Administration.

The Newsweek Poll shows McCain closing the gap. Newsweek's Jonathan Darman considers the implications of the new polling data. Meanwhile, today's Rasmussen daily tracking poll numbers put the race in a dead heat. So, why has the gap narrowed so quickly?

Like everyone else who follows politics for a living, or as a hobby, or both, I figured Obama would get a polling bounce once he eliminated Hillary Clinton from the contest. Once a party has a nominee, that usually happens as the followers of the defeated candidates reconcile themselves to the new standard bearer. But, history also shows us that races tend to narrow as they get closer to Election Day. In 1976, Jimmy Carter had a big lead early, then Ford narrowed the gap to the point that he almost pulled it out in the end. In 1980, Carter held a lead early until, after the debates, Reagan's calm demeanor reassured Americans that he was not some Right Wing nut. Reagan closed the gap and won in a landslide. In 1988, Mike Dukakis held the early lead, only to see that lead evaporate and George H.W. Bush pull ahead and win. In 2000, Al Gore had a narrow early lead which faded into a narrow Bush lead which then faded into the virtual tie at the end. Today, the country is still narrowly divided, despite the fact that Americans are united in the belief that things are not going well (thus the tremendous differential in the right track/wrong track numbers with huge numbers on the wrong track side, and the big negatives for both President Bush and the Democratic Congress).

Barack Obama had an initial burst of popularity when it seemed that he would bring genuine change, not just in policies, but in the way in which issues are discussed and decisions are made. His Robert Kennedy veneer has been slowly tarnishing as more and more evidence piles up to indicate that he is not a transformational figure, rather, he is simply another "tell the audience what they want to hear" politician. This is a big part of the reason why Clinton was able to close the gap during the primary process, but it started too late for her to win the nomination. The same phenomenon may be happening in the general election process, although starting far earlier than before. Like Clinton, McCain needs to seize on these signs of Obama's weakness and build an image for himself as a fighter for working class Americans. McCain can use his reputation as a maverick to advantage, especially if Obama continues to abandon his previous positions and supporters like so many used tissues. The bottom line?

McCain can still win this thing.

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