SENATE ANALYSIS

With only a few more weeks until election day, I thought I might take another look at the Senate races. When I first looked at the races early this year I calculated that there were 11 vulnerable Republican seats and 2 vulnerable Democratic seats. The only two Democrats in trouble at that time seemed to be Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Well, times have changed, and not in the GOP's favor, as I now find zero vulnerable Democratic seats and 13 vulnerable Republicans. Why?

Mary Landrieu is ahead by 13 points in the most recent poll against her challenger, Republican John Kennedy. If the national polls continue to move toward Obama, and if we see the much larger than normal African-American turnout and new Democratic voters, it should be more than enough for Landrieu.

Tim Johnson is even farther ahead of his opponents in South Dakota.

So, expect no losses for Senate Democrats. Meanwhile, in addition to the 11 vulnerable Senate Republicans I saw early this year (Stevens-AK, open-CO, open-ID, Collins-ME, Wicker-MS, Coleman-MN, Sununu-NH, open-NM, Smith-OR, Cornyn-TX, open-VA) we can now add McConnell of Kentucky and Dole of North Carolina to the list. What does it look like for the now 13 vulnerable GOP seats?

Alaska - Democrat Mark Begich is ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens as Stevens continues to face a public corruption scandal. Alaska, however, is a pretty reliable Republican state, and the top of the ticket for the GOP now, of course, features a favorite daughter in Sarah Palin. Still, I expect this to be a loss, as I did earlier this year.

Colorado - Democrat Mark Udall is ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer. Colorado is trending Democratic, and I expect it will be an Obama state. This is a loss.

Idaho - Republican Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is up big over Democrat Larry LaRocco. Idaho is about as red as a Red State can get. This is a hold.

Kentucky - Republican Senator Mitch McConnell is ahead of Democrat Bruce Lunsford. But it has gotten pretty close. Still, I expect the state to vote for McCain, and McConnell. This is a hold.

Maine - Republican Senator Susan Collins is well ahead of Democrat Tom Allen. Despite the fact that I think Maine will go for Obama, Collins should win. This is a hold.

Minnesota - Republican Senator Norm Coleman finds himself in a tight race with Democrat Al Franken. This is a solid Obama state. The anti-incumbent, anti-establishment, anti-Republican mood in a state with a history of populism will, in my opinion, lead to Coleman's demise. This is a loss (Senator Al Franken...I know, I know, it sounds ridiculous. But, he wouldn't be the first clown to stalk the halls of Congress).

Mississippi - Republican Roger Wicker is in a tight race with Democrat Ronnie Musgrove. This is a tough one. Mississippi is a reliable Red State when it comes to picking a President, but there are signs that the Democrats are gaining some ground. There are a lot of African-American voters in Mississippi who will be voting for Obama, and will no doubt vote for Musgrove. I'm going to call it a hold, but just barely.

New Hampshire - Incumbent Republican John Sununu is trailing former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu beat Shaheen for the seat back in '02, but not by a lot. New Hampshire continues to trend Democratic. Obama will probably win the state, but McCain is popular here and could still pull it out. Still, Sununu is tied to George W. Bush more than he is to John McCain, and Bush is very unpopular here. This is a loss.

New Mexico - Democrat Tom Udall is up big over Republican Steve Pearce. This is a loss.

North Carolina - Incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole is trailing Democrat Kay Hagan. North Carolina is also one of the few Southern states that is leaning toward Obama. If that is the case on election day, then call it a loss.

Oregon - Incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is in a virtual tie with Democrat Jeff Merkley. Oregon is a Blue State and will vote for Obama. This is a loss.

Texas - Incumbent Republican John Cornyn has a solid lead over Richard Noriega, but not an overwhelming lead. Still, I expect Texas will vote for McCain, so call this a hold.

Virginia - Former Governor Mark Warner, the Democrat, is up big over former Governor Jim Gilmore, the Republican. Expect a Warner to replace a Warner, even though the Democrat is not related to the retiring Republican. This is a loss.

So, at this moment, I expect the Republicans to lose 8 seats, which will change the Senate composition from 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 2 Independents (who caucus with the Democrats, thus giving them the majority) to 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans and 2 Independents, although one of the Independents, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, may choose to caucus with the Republicans, as he will be stripped of any power and privileges by the Democratic majority.

The bottom line? A solid Democratic Senate majority, but not veto or filibuster proof.