NEW HAMPSHIRE ELECTION PREDICTIONS

With one week to go before the election, here are my New Hampshire predictions (for what it's worth). I'm not going out on a limb on any of these, but here goes...

Governor John Lynch (D) will survive the Republican tsunami, beating John Stephen (R), but by a closer margin than polls predict. Lynch wins by only three points. Here are the latest polls on the race, courtesy of RealClearPolitics.

For U.S. Senate, Kelly Ayotte (R) will beat Paul Hodes (D) pretty handily. She wins by ten points. Here are the polls.

In Congressional District 1, former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) will beat incumbent Carol Shea-Porter, but not by such a big margin as you might expect. Guinta by five points. Here are the polls on that one.

In Congressional District 2, Charlie Bass (R) is the old face, having held the seat from 1995-2007. This is not a good year for old faces. Still, if the GOP wave is big enough, and I think it is, he will squeak it out over Ann McLane Kuster (D) despite the fact that the polls now put her in the lead, and that the district is more liberal than the 1st CD. Bass by one point (or less).

I expect the GOP will take control of the Executive Council, the House and the Senate, leaving John Lynch and Jeanne Shaheen (the other U.S. Senator) as the last Democrats standing. Why will this happen? Because independent (or unenrolled, as they are called here) voters are leaning heavily against the Democrats. Lynch's personal popularity will keep enough of them in his camp to stave off defeat, but that won't help Hodes, Shea-Porter or Kuster, or the numerous other Democrats on the ticket. Add to that dynamic the fact that Republicans are much more energized than Democrats, which is also the case nationally, and you get a very bad day for the Democrats.