BUDGETS, POLITICS AND PROSPERITY

Rep. Paul Ryan is set to release his 2012 budget plan (it is actually the GOP's plan, but he is the architect, so it is and will forever be known as the Ryan budget) called "The Path to Prosperity". I don't know if it will put us on such a path, other factors will be in play, but I do agree with this piece asserting that the plan and its components will act as a giant political test for the American voting public. I say voting public rather than the more generic "American people" because the only people that count in our system politically are those who vote. A very significantly conservative and Republican electorate turned out in 2010 leading to all of those GOP wins in Congress and State Houses across the land. If the electorate is composed of a more Democratic-leaning population in 2012 those gains will be reversed. That, of course, is quite possible (and I expect it to be the case). President Obama will be at the top of the Democratic ticket. His presence will bring out more African-Americans, more young people, more left-leaning peripheral voters (political scientist Angus Campbell famously called them "in-and-out voters"). How those voters react to the budget proposals of the GOP will be a factor. Frankly, though, the economic conditions of the country and the job approval rating of the President will be far more significant, in my opinion, in deciding how those voters cast their ballots. As for the short-term, I expect a government shutdown this week as the Democrats are looking back to 1995 and perceive the similar situation which happened then is repeating itself today. They believe the 1995 shutdown helped them politically, so you can bank on it happening today.