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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

It's the economy, stupid. The Obama economy is, in some respects, as bad as the Great Depression.

But, since the economy is not the only news out there, a few thoughts on the race for President.

You can go to any one of a number of sites to read commentary about last night's GOP presidential debate here in New Hampshire. I caught bits and pieces of it as I spent most of my television viewing time (like most folks around here) watching the Bruins beat the Canucks to force a game seven of the Stanley Cup finals. But, here are my two cents. These early debates, like most of the early activity in the presidential primary/caucus process, is all about activists and contributors. There are still some grassroots types out there to be had (although many have already made their choice). The left-wing press seems to think Michelle Bachmann was the winner, and maybe she did win over some folks with her performance. But these early debates act, like the early primaries and caucuses themselves, as a winnowing out process. Weak candidates are exposed and, eventually, are forced to withdraw. Newt Gingrich is already headed down that path, and Herman Cain may be sputtering after his lackluster performance last night. In the end, the libertarian conservatives and the social conservatives must choose their champion against that candidate who would seem to appeal most to less ideological voters (usually the safest, most mainstream, best known guy...like McCain in '08 or Bush in '00 or Dole in '96). Right now, that guy is Romney and, despite everything, he is still the man most likely to take the prize in the end, if Republican voters continue a long trend in picking presidential nominees.

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