FROM IOWA TO NEW HAMPSHIRE

Now that the Iowa caucuses are over it is time to reflect upon the results. Here are my impressions of those results and what they might mean...

Momentum in politics is a thing to behold. Just ten days ago Rick Santorum was an afterthought. The final RealClearPolitics average of the last Iowa polls showed him at 16.3%. He finished the night with 24.5%, a mere 8 votes shy of an outright victory over Romney. The latest in a long line of anti-Romneys peaked at just the right time.

The conventional wisdom is set in stone that Romney will win in New Hampshire. The RealClearPolitics average of the latest polls here in the Granite State show Romney leading by 21.3 points over Ron Paul. But if Santorum can avoid being destroyed by his own words or actions in the next week, and that is a very big if, and he can withstand the negative ads that are sure to come, another very big if, then he should do much better than those polls show. Santorums problem here is that Gingrich and Paul will not get out of his way. So, the conventional wisdom is probably correct, but Romney now faces the problem of high expectations. If he does not win by a large enough margin, and I have no idea how large that margin needs to be, he will not be able to erase the narrative that has already taken hold. Namely, that the majority of GOP voters would rather nominate someone else.

Finally, a word of caution to those pundits who would like to declare the race over and Romney the nominee. While I agree that a Romney nomination is still the most likely scenario (after all, history does tell us that Republicans prefer to nominate the safe choice,which is usually the next fellow in line), the calendar is such that if a real alternative can rise above the fray that person will have some time to raise money and build an organization. Not much time, but some time. The key is not what happens in New Hampshire, but what happens in South Carolina. If Santorum or Gingrich can win South Carolina on January 21 and then follow up with a win in Florida, then it is "game on". The entire month of February,except for Nevada on February 4, is filled with small state caucuses awarding uncommitted delegates (Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and the Northern Marianas). The next big contests won't happen until February 28 with primaries in Arizona and Michigan. While Michigan should be a lock for Romney, if the alternative candidate, probably either Santorum or Gingrich, can win Arizona, then he can enter Super Tuesday on March 6 with at least a shot at doing well enough to keep the contest going.