ISRAEL VS. IRAN

I've been meaning to post something on the issue of Iran's nuclear program and the possible response of the Israelis. This op-ed piece by Arnaud de Borchgrave in today's Washington Times explains the situation very neatly. The bottom line?

Some ranking European diplomats based in Tehran have told their home governments Iran will pursue its nuclear ambitions as long as Israel remains the only nuclear power in the Middle East. Israel, for its part, long ago concluded its very survival depends on its nuclear monopoly in the region. Hence, its decision to destroy Iraq's nuclear reactor before it went critical in 1981. With 10 percent of the world's oil reserves and oil at $50 plus per barrel, Iran may not be too impressed by the threat of U.S. and European sanctions under counter-proliferation strategies. But these may persuade Iran to opt out of NPT and, like North Korea, go nuclear before the U.S. can figure out how to neutralize its efforts.

My question, which de Borchgrave does not address, is whether electing George W. Bush or John Kerry will make any difference in how this scenario plays out.