WILL RUSSIAN TANKS ROLL INTO UKRAINE?

As Ukraine teeters on the edge of civil war, I am struck by the fact that so many of us haven't been paying any attention to the on-going reversion to autocratic rule that has been happening in Russia. The new Czar, now called President Putin, has consolidated his power and has increasingly turned his attention to the former Soviet republics (and former provinces of the Russian Empire) in his effort to restore Russia to Great Power status. Michael Gove writes in the Times of London about this trend.

Putin's distaste for democracy does not end at Russia's borders. Indeed, his borders don't even end at Russia's borders. Russia's leadership has consistently tried to forestall, undermine and crush democratic movements in its near-abroad. It has troops on the far western border of Ukraine, policing the gangster state of Trans-Dniester, a breakaway territory which has consistently undermined the integrity of the Romanian-speaking republic of Moldova. Russia has also supported secessionist movements in Georgia and Azerbaijan, in an effort to undermine the independence of those former Soviet republics. Additionally, Putin has provided backing for those former communist leaderships, such as Alexander Lukashenko's in Belarus, which have been happy to reject democratisation and cluster under Moscow's umbrella.

In Ukraine, Putin is trying all his old tricks. He has signaled his backing for the anti-democratic strongman, Yanukovych, even campaigning for him during the election. Russia's military strength in the region has been not-so-subtly advertised. And, unsurprisingly for any student of the Putin manual of state subversion, secession of one half of the country has been floated.

These manoeuvres reflect Putin's background and ideology. Although raised in the Soviet system, and using tactics to destabilise and control neighbours which were familiar to Stalin, it would be wrong to think of Putin as a born-again communist. He is instead heir to an older, continuing, tradition in Russian politics. As a former KGB man, who has surrounded himself with other old comrades from the bureau, he is a believer in the rule of an enlightened elite of grimly efficient patriots who will safeguard Russia from the corruption of Western thought and the consequent risk of disintegration. From the Tsarist Okhrana through Lenin's Cheka to the KGB and today's FSB, there has existed among Russia's secret police elite a determination to maintain Great Power status by ensuring the state is not debilitated by liberalism.

Read the whole thing.