CIVIL WAR IN IRAQ?

The fallout from the destruction of the Shiite mosque in Samarra continues in Iraq. There has been more violence, and a curfew. Will this devolve into a civil war? The most important thing to look for is whether or not the key people in the new Iraqi government and the major political parties can continue to work together. If they can, then it is likely that the growing Iraqi military and police forces will continue to do their jobs (although there will always be some defections to the insurgency, as well as criminal behavior). If the major Shiite political and religious leaders declare that they cannot work with the Sunnis, and order their militias into action against them, then the Iraqi military and police personnel will be forced to take sides, which will result in an actual civil war (with the Kurds retreating to their corner of Iraq). So far, this has not happened. I don't think it will happen, because the major Shiite political leaders all know that they already have the majority in the Iraqi parliament, and the majority of personnel in the police and security forces. The major Sunni leaders know this as well, so it is in their interest to continue peaceful talks with the Shiites and the Kurds. The passions aroused by the destruction of the mosque will cool, but expect al Qaeda to perpetrate even more outrages as they seek desperately to prevent the emergence of a peaceful, stable, democratic Iraq.

Victor Davis Hanson has just returned from Iraq, and is counseling patience.