IMMIGRATION DEBACLE

The President is set to deliver a prime-time Oval Office address to the American people on Monday night to push his vision of immigration reform. Initial news accounts of the address indicate that, among other things, he will advocate that the National Guard become involved in securing our southern border. At the time I write this, I have not seen any accounts of what exactly his other proposals might be. If, and I suspect this will happen, he trots out his guest worker proposal again, this speech will not significantly impact his approval ratings, which is the real goal of the speech.

That is because, on the immigration issue, the President cannot have it both ways. He cannot appease "mad as hell" Conservatives by legalizing 12 million people who broke the laws to enter, or stay in, this country. Yet, he cannot appease the 12 million illegals and, more importantly, the many millions of their friends, relatives, co-workers and employers who want them to stay with anything short of amnesty.

For the President and the GOP, this speech can be seen in only one light, as an attempt at political damage control. If Bush really believed in securing our borders, he would have done so in the weeks after 9/11, not almost five years later.

The tough part for me, as I weigh the issue, is that I agree with the basic premise that it is impossible to hunt down and deport 12 million people with our current resources, and there is absolutely no possibility of garnering a political majority to pass the policies and appropriate the funds necessary to embark on such a project. Even if tougher laws and sanctions were passed against businesses that hire illegals, and real efforts were made to enforce those laws, the 12 million would not simply go home. There will always be people willing to hire them, and there will always be ways to acquire the necessary false documents to fool those who are trying to comply with the laws in good faith. Therefore, the 12 million are staying.

But logic is not a factor in this debate and, besides, without a real remedy for the problems on our southern border (and a real effort to tighten the northern border, too) any appeal to reason on the impracticality of deporting those 12 million will fall on deaf ears. Unless President Bush announces his support for building a fence along the southern border and his support for the use of troops to secure it in the meantime, he will be unable to convince enough Conservatives, like me, to support a rational plan for assimilating the 12 million.