A WIDENING WAR

According to this report, Israel has given the Syrians an ultimatum. Pressure Hezbollah to release its captive Israeli soldiers and stop rocketing Israeli towns, or else. The "or else" probably means a series of strikes against the Syrian military and infrastructure. It appears now that Israel is trying to destroy Hezbollah. To do so, they need to sever Hezbollah's lifeline from Iran via Syria. If that is the case, then Israel's actions so far become clear. First, cut the air, land and sea links to Lebanon. Then, punish Syria until she is no longer willing or capable to help Hezbollah any further. Then, pound Hezbollah into dust. Since the Iranians do not have a direct way to give further aid without Syrian help or a way into Lebanon by air or sea, that would effectively neutralize Iranian support without having to engage in a direct war with Iran. It would, however, still leave the Iranians to continue with their nuclear program which, combined with their missile program, is still an existential threat to the Israelis.

The wild card is, of course, how energetically will the Syrians resist if they are attacked directly and will the Iranians come directly to their aid. If the Syrians resist and Iran gives aid, that would mean a wider war with consequences very difficult to determine. Arnaud de Borchgrave, at the end of this piece in today's Washington Times, says people who try to look through crystal balls and predict what will happen in the Middle East tend merely to end up chewing on shattered glass.