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Wednesday, August 02, 2006

As Israel sends troops deeper into Lebanon, and strikes in the Bekaa Valley, Hezbollah launches a fusillade of rockets at Northern Israel. I am hopeful that the Israeli government finally understands, after much fumbling around and too much reliance on airpower, that the way to win is to send troops on the ground deep into Lebanon to engage Hezbollah fighters. The upsurge in rocket attacks may very well be a last desperate gasp by Hezbollah. Even if it is not, eventually the Israelis will advance deep enough to put much of Israel, especially Haifa, beyond the range of most of the Hezbollah rockets. Once that is done, Israel can plausibly say that they have achieved their objectives, and then call for a cease fire.

Amir Taheri has an interesting analysis of the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. He believes this is a proxy war between the West and the Islamists, now clearly led by Iran.

This column in the Washington Times takes a similar view, comparing the conflict to the situation that existed in Spain in 1936, a preview of the wider war to come.

Is it 1914 or 1936? Is it the guns of August, or the Spanish Civil War? All historical comparisons are, of course, imperfect. The circumstances are never quite the same. It is 2006, and no one can know how events will play out in 2007, 2008, 2009 and so on. The rising tide of radical Islam may have crested, or it may be just beginning to come in. If history is any guide, however, one thing is certain. There will be war, and innocents will die along with the rest.

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