It appears now almost certain that President Bush will order some kind of troop "surge" into Iraq sometime in the next few weeks. John Podhoretz reports in this column in the New York Post that the President has decided to fire the current commander in Iraq, General George Casey, because he (and some other folks in the Pentagon) seems to be more concerned with how to get out of Iraq rather than winning the war. Historian John Keegan writes in this column in the Daily Telegraph a description of what an increase of 50,000 troops would do for the U.S. forces in Iraq in their effort to attack and defeat the Sunni insurgents and the Shiite militias. My instincts tell me to support the President, as everything I know about war tells me that one cannot win without taking the fight to the enemy. Unfortunately, my knowledge of the media and the political mood of the American people also tells me that this new offensive will result in the televised images of death and destruction in Iraq, including the deaths of many civilians, which will result in massive anti-American protests inside Iraq and throughout the Arab world, which will result in a heightened anti-Bush fervor in our own media, and a sharp reaction by the Democrats (as expected), as well as some public breaks with the President from notable Republicans. I can only hope that the President will withstand the storm long enough to allow the military to complete their operations, no matter how bloody and costly. A reprise of the Fallujah debacle from 2004 will surely mean the end of any hope of a military victory in Iraq, and might result in the collapse of morale in our military on a scale not seen since the 1970s.

To further complicate matters, it appears not only that the Iranians are meddling in Iraq by supporting both the Shiite militias and some of the Sunni insurgents (according to this report), but also that the leaders of Iran are anticipating the arrival of the "Hidden Imam" in 2007. If you don't read anything else today, read this column by Joel Rosenberg about the media reporting inside Iran concerning the conditions to be expected with the Imam's arrival, and what that will mean. If Rosenberg is right, and the leaders of Iran really believe this apocalyptic nonsense, they just might launch a war, which would certainly expand into the big war I have been writing about since I started this blog.