Is President Bush about to surrender to political reality concerning the Iraq War? David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post, says the President has acknowledged there is a "Plan B-H" for Iraq, as in the Baker-Hamilton Report. Upon its release, the Baker-Hamilton Report, also known as the Iraq Study Group Report, was widely ridiculed as dead-on-arrival, as the President had already decided to go for a troop surge in a last-ditch effort to salvage something like victory in the Iraq War. Now, it appears that the President understands the political reality in Washington, which is that the Republicans in Congress have given the President, and General Petraeus in the field, until September to show demonstrable signs of progress in Iraq. After that, if there is no such change (which, I expect, there will not be, at least in terms readily identifiable to the American people), then those GOP Congressmen and women will start defecting in large numbers to the Democrats. The only way to prevent those defections, which are driven by the polls which show a majority of Americans in favor of withdrawal (and stories like this one from New Hampshire), is to come up with a disengagement plan that will sell on Main Street America. Right now, that can only be Baker-Hamilton, which was widely praised by Democrats upon its release, which will make it harder for them to reject it if the President embraces it.

The handwriting is on the wall, and has been for some time. This war, like the limited wars in Korea and, especially, Vietnam, was lost when the American people turned against it. They expressed their dissatisfaction last November, which resulted in the Democrats taking back the Congress (and a number of state legislatures, like mine here in NH). The President, Karl Rove, and the GOP members of Congress, all must know by now that the situation will, in all probability, not look a whole lot different come November of 2008, except for the fact that we will have a much higher number of dead Americans to mourn. If anything, the American people will be angrier and more disillusioned by then, which will amount to an even larger electoral disaster for the GOP. The only way to head it off is to fundamentally change the discussion. The only way to do that short of an immediate withdrawal is to implement a policy of phased withdrawal, based on benchmarks to be achieved by the Iraqi government and on diplomatic discussions with the neighbors, including Iran and Syria. Politically, it still might not be enough. If Americans are still in Iraq fighting and dying in considerable numbers in November, 2008, it could still turn into a political disaster for the GOP. At least, so the thinking goes, there is a chance to make the election about something else if there is a policy on the table that is a compromise made with the help of moderates in both parties. That will, at least, keep people like Hillary Clinton from posturing on the issue, and it has the added bonus of forcing her to fend off attacks from the outraged anti-war folks, who will accept nothing less than total, immediate withdrawal.

Expect a compromise policy, largely based on Baker-Hamilton, to emerge in September, and troop withdrawals to begin early in 2008.

Michael Ledeen says the Iranians have taken American hostages, and no one seems to care.

Bob Novak writes about Fred Thompson today. As an undecided New Hampshire Republican voter, I am intrigued by his candidacy.