ELECTION ANALYSIS

Iowa has spoken. Now it's our turn.

Here are the results from Iowa, courtesy of CNN. Here is the latest from the Associated Press about Obama's win. More reaction from Dick Morris, who says Hillary is down but not out, David Brooks who says last night gave us two political earthquakes in the form of Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, John F. Harris and Jonathan Martin see the GOP race in total disarray, and Fred Barnes who sees Hillary on the ropes.

As for me, I am struck by the massive turnout of Democrats in Iowa. It speaks to two things. One, the great appeal of Obama, especially to young people. Two, the fact that Democrats are still energized, as they were in 2006, despite the fact that the Iraq War seems to be going better. If this trend continues here in New Hampshire, then we can expect (as I originally predicted a year ago) that independents will go into the Democratic primary in droves, which will help Obama win here. A smaller cadre of voters in the GOP primary will hurt McCain, but he has such momentum here that he may still be able to win. It all depends on whether or not GOP base voters here are turned off by Mike Huckabee's positions on a variety of issues to such an extent that they will look for an alternative and that they will reject Romney as that alternative (and Giuliani or Thompson for that matter). Romney still has a chance under this scenario, if he can convince those voters that he is the only viable, true-blue conservative alternative to Huckabee. My gut tells me that he will not be able to make that case (despite the help of the National Review) because Republican voters, concerned about the Iraq War and national security in general, will look at the relative inexperience of Huckabee on those issues (and Obama, as he gets closer to becoming the Democratic nominee), turn to Romney and see his relative inexperience on those issues, turn to Giuliani, see that he is unacceptable to social conservatives, see Thompson as an ineffective campaigner, and look again at McCain as the last man standing (as Bob Novak wrote the other day).

Prediction for New Hampshire (with the caveat that I am free to change my mind as we see the last poll results just before election day on Tuesday)....Obama wins big on the Democratic side, and McCain wins narrowly on the GOP side, with Huckabee sliding into second, thus eliminating Romney, Thompson, and Giuliani (although Giuliani will keep going, hoping to score some victories in the larger states).

By the way, I will be making an appearance on Dan Rea's show on WBZ-AM tonight from 9-11 PM, as they broadcast live from the Center of New Hampshire in Manchester. It should be fun.