Patrick Ruffini is predicting a big win for John McCain here in New Hampshire, and he shares some analysis of the numbers from McCain's big win here in 2000 for some historical perspective. Basically, Ruffini believes that independents will turn out in large numbers for the Arizona senator, as they did in 2000. I am not convinced, as of yet. There is still a possibility for my original prediction to come true, which is that independents here will turn out in a much larger percentage for Obama in the Democratic primary. If that happens, then Obama wins the Democratic primary here by a significant margin, and Romney holds on for a narrow win in the GOP primary, with McCain second and the rest of the field trailing. If independents do turn out in large numbers for McCain, then he will win his primary (and Romney will suffer a big beat down), while Clinton will pull out the race on the Democratic side (which will likely save her candidacy after what I believe will be a defeat in Iowa).

The latest polls show how the campaign is moving here in New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, Clinton is maintaining a very slim lead over Obama, with Edwards still in striking distance. A significant Obama win in Iowa will certainly help him move those numbers, and Edwards still has a chance to do the same, but it is all about independents here in the Granite State (see above). On the GOP side, McCain has now taken the lead over Romney. This means the former Massachusetts governor really needs to beat back the Huckabee challenge in Iowa, as I am not at all sure that he can survive losses in both Iowa and New Hampshire.