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Friday, October 10, 2008

As world leaders consider a global approach to dealing with the financial crisis, more than a few people are wondering about the consequences of these events, which will extend far beyond the immediate economic problems that are being created.

Does the crisis mean the end of the current Western-dominated economic order?

Is it the end of American-style capitalism?

Will it mark a return to old-fashioned protectionism?

Will it result in a political realignment here in the United States?

No one really knows the answers, of course, but opinions abound. Here are mine:

1. I believe the Democrats will make significant gains in the election, but it will not mark a political realignment, unless the real economy drops into a long, deep recession. If the Democrats follow up their big wins in 2008 with more wins in 2010, then we'll know if a realignment is happening.

2. Protectionism is on the way, you can take it to the bank (or stuff it in the mattress). There was already a strong current opposed to the dislocations caused by globalization. Add to that a sharp economic downturn, and you get protectionism which, of course, will only make things worse.

3. As for the end of American-style capitalism, and the end of a Western-dominated economic order, don't count on that...not yet, at least. I still believe our political and economic systems are the best for creating wealth, despite the periodic panics and crashes that plague the system. We're down, but don't count us out.

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