DAY OF RECKONING IN IRAN

Today may be a day of reckoning in Iran as large protests are scheduled, despite the warning issued by the Supreme Leader yesterday. Ayatollah Khamenei essentially said that the election results were legitimate and final, and any effort to protest them would be met with serious consequences.

Michael Ledeen has some interesting information about what may happen. As I have been writing from the beginning, I expect a bloody crackdown. The only thing that will save the protesters is if a critical mass of the security forces decide to disobey their commanders by refusing to use violence against the crowd. If that happens, it will most likely quickly be followed by senior commanders jumping over to Mousavi's side. This could lead to civil war, or to a speedy downfall of the regime. Unfortunately, my best guess (and it is just a guess) is that the protesters will be crushed. I hope I am wrong.

Depending on the outcome of the protests, the election of June 12 in Iran may be seen as a historic turning point in the history of the Middle East.

There is still much criticism directed at President Obama for his failure to more robustly back the protesters in his rhetoric, understanding, of course, that he has very limited capability to do anything more than give them verbal support.

If you want to follow what is happening moment-by-moment in Iran today, perhaps the best place is to visit Andrew Sullivan's blog.