MORE HEALTH CARE FOLLIES

The President concedes that there will be no final vote on a health insurance reform bill until the Fall. The process is slowing down because, according to this piece, the President has failed to bring in more Conservative Democrats and Moderate Republicans. It is also slowing because new polling data shows an increasingly skeptical public. Republican opponents of the plan are also winning the public relations debate.

I well remember the Clinton health care debate in 1993 and 1994, and I recognize the patten. A President who campaigned on changing our health insurance system sets the parameters of a plan, then has others hammer out the detail. In Clinton's case it was Hillary and a group of advisers, in Obama's case it is Democratic members of Congress. In both cases, as the details of the plan (or plans) became public, more Americans had reasons to dislike the proposals. Thus, public support for change eroded over time. In 1994 this process resulted in the ultimate defeat of the plan and was a major factor in the GOP takeover of Congress that Fall. I expect the plan we ultimately see will either fail outright, or it will be so watered down as to be unrecognizable. President Obama is a smart politician, and he may sign the weak bill and declare victory. In any event, I now expect a GOP resurgence in the Fall of 2010.