HEALTH REFORM FOLLIES

The President has abandoned the so-called 'public option' for health insurance reform in a last ditch effort to get something passed. Why is it so difficult to get something done?

First, despite the soothing words of people like Paul Krugman, who assert that the government guaranteed plans in places like Great Britain, France, Canada and Switzerland are all providing better service at lower cost than our system, average Americans aren't buying it, especially the elderly. In fact, as Ross Douthat points out, Republicans are finding it extremely easy to demagogue the issue by scaring seniors into believing that they will be denied care which, of course, is exactly what Democrats did in the past when the GOP tried to reform Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. This is all made much easier to believe when knowledgeable people point out that our system spends more and more money every year on old folks nearing the end of their lives. Why is that?

Because, second, old people vote. Since the President chose to go without a plan but, rather, gave an outline of goals to Congress and had them come up with something, he has allowed people to believe whatever they want to believe.

So, will reform happen this year? I don't think so. A plan without a public option will probably pass the Senate, but may not pass the House. In the end, as in 1993, too much public anger and too much organized opposition will force the President to abandon the effort. It won't do him much good, however, as he will face the same trouble Bill Clinton did in 1994 when voters get a chance to speak their minds at the ballot box.