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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Ralph Peters says we are wasting our blood and treasure trying to build a nation in Afghanistan.

Thomas Friedman agrees, saying that we need to focus on Iraq.

I think the main thing to understand is that Iraq is more important because it is at the heart of the Arab world, which is where Islam originated. If Islamist extremism is to be discredited and defeated, it must be done by the Arabs themselves. The surge worked in Iraq because the Sunni Arabs of central Iraq were disgusted and frightened by the brutality and extremism of the Al Qaeda fanatics who had come to their country, ostensibly to fight the Americans. These Al Qaeda people were, mostly, Arabs, but they were foreign Arabs, Saudis, Yemenis, etc., with very little in common with the Sunni Arab tribes of Iraq. Once the locals decided they had had enough of these foreigners, they rose up against them. Fortunately, President Bush decided to help them with a surge of U.S. troops and resources. so they were able to defeat Al Qaeda.

In Afghanistan, on the other hand, while the Al Qaeda guys are still a bunch of foreigners, the nucleus of the insurgency are locals. The Taliban is indigenous, made up of men from the Pashtun tribes that dominate most of the country, especially in the south and west. Perhaps, as Friedman believes, it would be best to lessen our footprint. While that would mean the Taliban would come to dominate the country again, with terrible consequences for the locals, it might bring Bin Laden out of hiding, thus giving us a better chance of finally getting him. The only other alternative, it seems to me, is an increased presence in Afghanistan with an open ended, potentially decades long, commitment. I just don't think that makes any sense.

More signs of trouble for the Democrats in 2010, as recent polling suggests that Americans are moving to the Right.

Obama is increasingly seen, it seems to me, as weak and ineffective, with a tendency to believe that he can push the nation to the left simply by the power of his personality. Meanwhile, Pelosi and Reid don't look so great, either. With the economy still not performing well, and jobs still disappearing, the trends all point to a big protest vote at the next opportunity, unless things turn around dramatically.

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