ABOUT LAST NIGHT...

One can expect quite a lot of ink and hot air to be expended over the coming weeks as highly paid political pundits and analysts (as well as a few slobs like me) pore over the results of last night's major political contests and try to determine what, if any, trends can be discerned that could carry over into the much more significant mid-term elections coming up one year from now.

Most importantly, Democrats are whistling as they pass the graveyard if they dismiss out of hand the smashing victory won by the Republicans in Virginia, and the narrow victory of Christie over Corzine in New Jersey. As I watched the coverage on CNN last night (while switching over from time-to-time to Fox and then to the Celtics as they smashed the Sixers much the way the Republicans were smashing the Democrats in Virginia) I had to laugh at some of the commentary from their panel of experts, all but one of whom is clearly a political liberal, as they tried to distance these results from President Obama's job performance. At times I wanted to scream at them as they miss the obvious, or deliberately refuse to discuss it. So, since they won't do it, I guess I while.

Here are the lessons about last night, as I see them, and they apply to all elections.

1. American elections are won and lost by the people in the middle, who do not hold strong ideological opinions, are not extremely well educated about political issues (although they may be extremely well educated in other aspects of life), and do not vote reliably Republican or Democrat. They are sometimes called "Independents", because many of these people now elect to register without a Republican or Democrat party affiliation, or they are called "swing voters", because they can swing back and forth between the parties as circumstances change. The rest of the electorate is made up of hard-core voters who will vote for a person based on the party label almost without fail. There are fewer of these voters than once was the case, but they still make up a significant portion of the voting public.

2. American elections are won and lost based on who actually comes out to vote. This is called "turnout". This is oftentimes influenced by the enthusiasm generated by a political candidate, a particular issue, or a particular set of economic or political circumstances (war, economic dislocation, etc.).

3. American elections are won and lost based on what is happening RIGHT NOW. Americans have, in general, a poor appreciation of history, and very short term ways of thinking. This is true in all walks of our socio-economic lives, as anyone who has been in a sales meeting or board meeting of any company of any size can attest.

Therefore, keeping those three bedrock facts in mind, we can properly analyze last night's results. Republicans won, and won big, in Virginia because, unlike last year, Independents swung heavily toward the GOP candidate, while the most monolithic Democratic voting block, African-Americans, did not turn out as heavily as they did for Barack Obama one year ago. Last year those Independents swung toward Obama just enough, aided by high African-American participation, to give Obama the edge. Why did Independents swing to the GOP candidates? Because, RIGHT NOW, the economy still looks to be in a shambles, with unemployment high and getting higher, and the President's prescriptions seem either irresponsible or ineffective to a high percentage of these folks. So, combine that with the local issues, the relative performance of the candidates in the race, and you get a swing to the GOP.

Republicans won the governor's office in New Jersey for the same reasons, but because New Jersey is a more heavily Democratic state, the margin was much smaller. Again, lower African-American turnout (and, perhaps, "progressive" voters disenchanted with Corzine or even with the President and the Democrats generally) plus a swing of Independents to the GOP helped turn the tide.

In the NY-23 congressional race the Democrat won after the Republican dropped out and endorsed him over his Conservative Party opponent. It was still close and, if you add the GOP candidate's votes to the Conservative's votes, the Conservative would have narrowly won. Some of those folks who went out to vote in that district yesterday just were unable to pull the lever for someone without that "R" next to their name.

So, what can we project going forward?

First, health reform in it's present form is dead. Harry Reid is already hinting that he will delay it until next year. I can see no reason why the Blue Dog Democrats in the House are going to risk their political careers to sign on to this massive, incomprehensible government boondoggle. They have enough trouble without handing that albatross around their necks.

Second, the GOP will now see a huge surge in fundraising as Wall Street and the big business community at-large sees the winds shifting, and individual donations from conservatives around the country will increase.

Third, the GOP will gain serious traction in recruiting attractive candidates for Congress all across the country, especially in conservative districts now represented by Democrats. These men and women will see an opportunity to win, and the national GOP will have the cash and the expertise to try and help them do just that.

All of these things, plus the historic pattern of the party out of power gaining seats in mid-term elections, bodes well for the GOP, despite the fact that polling data shows a public that still does no trust them much (the polling shows a "Conservative" country, not a "Republican" one). If, when voters go to the polls in November 2010, the economic climate RIGHT THEN is as bleak or bleaker than it is RIGHT NOW, it could, and should, be a political tsunami like we saw in 1994.