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Tuesday, May 18, 2010

It's election day in many places, and there are quite a few interesting races to watch. Here are some recent poll numbers. We may finally be seeing the last of Arlen Specter, if Democrats in Pennsylvania decide they want a real Democrat, rather than an 80-year-old man trying to hold onto the post he has held for decades as a Republican (only to discard the GOP when it became clear its members were done with him). The conventional wisdom has it that the electorate is in a bad mood, which is bad for incumbents generally, regardless of party affiliation. This group of elections is a mixed bag of locations with a variety of local personalities and issues, so there may not be much to take from the results to extrapolate onto the national scene. I'll be looking at those results closely, of course, as will so many others. But I will not be deterred from holding to my view that this November will see a GOP surge unlike anything we have seen since 1994.

Turnout is one good reason for that view, as experience and the numbers tell us that younger voters, as well as ethnic minorities, turn out in far smaller numbers in mid-term elections than they do in presidential election years. The numbers also show Obama and the Democrats doing less well with younger voters and minorities (except African-Americans) than they did in 2008.

Mona Charen believes the polarization of the electorate is a good thing. I agree. I've always thought it better for the voters to have a choice, not an echo.

Gregory Rodriguez tells us WASPs we shouldn't despair over the fact that there is not a single Protestant on the Supreme Court (once Kagan replaces Stephens). The six Catholics and three Jews are all products of Harvard and Yale, after all, and Rodriguez believes they represent one aspect of the triumph of WASP culture in America.

Mort Zuckerman writes about the crippling price of public employee unions in America.

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