Michael Barone cites President Obama's arrogance (among other things) as his primary flaw when dealing with the electorate. I agree that his aloof, seemingly arrogant personality, once it emerged from behind the smokescreen he and his people, with much help from the media, created during the campaign, has been a factor in the decline in his job approval and popularity ratings. But most of it is being driven by the poor economy. If the economy had rebounded over the last few months in a significant and visible way, most importantly by creating jobs, then people would have given him some credit for it, and his approval ratings would be much better. But that has not happened. If anything, it seems the economy is getting worse. The most recent jobs report is grim. Some financial analysts say a new collapse is coming due to our growing debt to GDP ratio, or due to other factors. Megan McCardle believes we may have reached the end of the road for mass investment in the stock market (if she is right, as people come to believe their retirement is in jeopardy, expect even more explosive political reactions). As the most-read editorial in the history of The Washington Examiner website puts it, "Time to admit Obamanomics has failed".

The bottom line? Pay no attention to the day-to-day gyrations of political fortune in various races around the country. Stay fixed on the "feel' people have about the economy. If they are filled with pessimism, frustration and even anger in November, the Democrats will be swamped.