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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Michael Barone has an interesting analysis of the American political scene in this piece. He believes we are in a period of what he calls 'open field politics' that involves wide swings in voter preferences for Republicans or Democrats. If he is right, a big GOP victory in 2010 may not last very long.

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann take a very different view. Not only are they predicting a GOP takeover of both houses of Congress, they believe the Republicans will win over 70 House seats and the damage done to the Democrats will be long lasting.

Here is an analysis of the House races and the proper use of the generic ballot polls in examining those contests.

A new poll shows the Tea Party movement gaining ground inside the GOP.

Harold Meyerson believes there is evidence of increased enthusiasm on the two poles of the Democratic base.

On the other hand, is it possible that young people are moving more to the Right, at least on certain issues?

As for me, I expect to see the poll numbers tighten in the more hotly contested races as we get closer to election day. But this may not tell the true story. In the very first election I ever participated in, the 1980 Presidential contest, the polls showed a tight race right up to the end. Of course, the actual voting was not close, as Reagan won in a landslide. During volatile times, it seems to me, polls are even less useful than they are in ordinary elections.

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