A new poll shows the race for governor in Massachusetts is now just about a dead heat between Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick and Republican Charlie Baker. Once again, Massachusetts is the state to watch early on election night. If the GOP wins the governor's office and one or two House seats in the Bay State it will mean the wave is coming in, big time.

Lisa Murkowski will run a write-in campaign to try to hold her Senate seat in Alaska. This may very well allow the Democrats to take that seat, making it even less likely that the GOP will win the Senate. Of course, it is possible that the wave for Republicans will be so large such things will not matter.

Union members are not very enthusiastic about the Democrats, which is causing problems for their leaders. This poses a real problem for the Democrats, as union members provide the core of their foot soldiers when waging the ground game in an election. If they have less enthusiasm, that means fewer people going door-to-door, fewer people manning the phones, fewer holding signs. It also means that it is probable a significant percentage of these members may, in the privacy of the voting booth, defy their leaders when casting a ballot.

Fred Barnes says a GOP Nor'easter is coming in the Northeast. His focus is on Pennsylvania (which I, for one, do not consider part of the Northeast), but it seems likely that there will be Republican gains in the real Northeast, especially here in New Hampshire.

A Chicago law professor whose wife is a doctor (the exact pre-political status of Barack and Michelle Obama) says Obama's plan to let taxes go back up on the "rich" will hurt folks like him. What strikes me about his post is that the people who will really suffer if he and his wife have to make some cutbacks to pay the extra taxes are the working class folks who mow his lawn and clean his house.