GALLUP PREDICTS MASSIVE GOP WIN

What poll has consistently been the most accurate poll leading into a mid-term election, looking at all mid-terms since 1994? According to Jay Cost, it is the Gallup generic ballot poll. Cost compares the Gallup poll to other polls in this morning's piece. Cost shows that most polls skew in favor of the Democrats when comparing their final predicted results with the actual results, but Gallup is the closest to the actual results (except in 1998).

So, what does the Gallup generic ballot poll say about the election tomorrow? It says the Republicans lead in the likely voter, 45% turnout scenario by a whopping 55% to 40%. If this number is anywhere close to being accurate, it means the Republicans will win far more than the 39 seats needed to take over the House and, in fact, will in all probability win more than 60 seats. It also increases the likelihood that they will win the ten seats needed to take the Senate, as well, despite the polling data that would seem to indicate 8 or 9 is the best they can do.

Therefore, unless all the pollsters, including Gallup, are overestimating Republican turnout by a wide margin, and overestimating the general Republican preference of independent voters by a wide margin, and/or underestimating Democratic turnout by a wide margin, then we can expect an enormous Republican victory tomorrow, perhaps on a scale not seen in over 80 years.