Over the last few years I have written a number of posts on this blog predicting that we will see another big, global war within the next decade or so. As you know, the world has not experienced a truly big war (one that involved the most powerful nations on the planet arrayed on opposite sides in direct conflict) since 1945. Why have we enjoyed such a long period of peace? There are, of course, a lot of theories about that one, but the answer that makes the most sense to me is the one that combines the existence of nuclear weapons with the ability of the superpowers to achieve their economic and ideological goals without going to war with one another, thus risking the mass destruction those nuclear weapons would cause. With the collapse of the Soviet Union the world has briefly enjoyed a period with one superpower. That, of course, cannot last. Other great powers are emerging, especially China.

Still, just because there is more than one great power (or superpower) does not mean that a big, global war is necessary or inevitable. Why, then, should we worry? Fundamentally, we need to realize the reasons why wars happen in the first place, big or small, global or local. Economics and/or ideology is the starting point for all wars, in my estimation. One nation's leaders decide that their economic or political survival in their cherished, ideological vision of themselves is imperiled and can only be salvaged by making war (Japan's forays into China in 1931 and 1937, followed by her attacks on the Western powers in 1941). Or a nation is consumed by the messianic vision of her leader (Hitler, Mussolini, etc.). Or a nation's leaders decide they must preempt a rival's attack (Israel in '67). Or there is a competition over land or resources that neither party wishes to resolve simply through talk and compromise (India vs. Pakistan several times).

We have enjoyed since 1945 decades of economic growth (on average) in the Western world and Asia, and we have watched as numerous developing countries have tapped into their economic potentials. While we have seen numerous wars over that time, all have been relatively small and localized, at least as compared with the two world wars. While some have involved enormous casualties (Chinese civil war from '45-47, India and Pakistan in '47) and even led to genocide (Cambodia, Rwanda), none have grown to a global scale or have directly involved the greatest military and economic powers of the Earth.

This is about to change. Why? Read this piece by Caroline Glick about the economic, social and political conditions now facing countries like Egypt and Syria. When the leaders of a country are facing a populace on the brink of starvation and their nation on the brink of ruin, they have a tendency to do rash things. If this economic ruin were limited to the Arab nations, it would not necessarily lead to global conflagration. But it seems increasingly clear to me that widespread economic ruin could very well strike the rest of the world due to the financially precarious condition of Europe and the United States. We may not have seen the real repeat of the Great Depression yet. It may be yet to come.