MY PREDICTION - AND THE FUTURE OF THIS BLOG

Tomorrow over 100 million Americans will go to their polling places and cast a vote for President of the United States (as well as numerous other offices). This election will be watched more closely by more people worldwide than any other election in history. Love us or hate us, the people of this planet know that America is the indispensable country. We are the power, economically, militarily, culturally, behind Western Civilization as we know it. We are the bulwark of freedom, the last, best hope of mankind struggling against the forces of barbarism. It is an awesome responsibility. For the first time in a long time, it appears most Americans understand that responsibility and will seek to exercise it.

Which leads to the great wild card about tomorrow's election...turnout. No one really can predict how many Americans will turn out. Both major parties have launched unprecedented get-out-the-vote operations. Many states have made it easier to vote by absentee ballot, or created early voting opportunities. The flood of absentee ballot applications and the long lines in states where there is early voting are both indicators that we will see the greatest turnout (in terms of absolute numbers) in our history tomorrow.

So how will all these new voters break? Will they break to the challenger? Or will the support the incumbent? As a Bush supporter, I hope they choose to side with the President. But, if I don't miss my guess, they'll almost certainly break for Kerry, which is why I believe John Kerry will be the next President of the United States.

Why will new voters break for Kerry? Because most of them will be in the 18-39 age bracket, a group that traditionally leans more liberal and Democratic. But it's also more than that. These younger voters don't normally turn out because they don't believe they have a stake in the election. This time, I believe they see the stakes very clearly. We are at war with a barbaric enemy. Rumors of a draft cannot be dispelled no matter how hard the SecDef tries. Many young Americans have friends or former classmates at war in Afghanistan or Iraq. Therefore, the stakes for them couldn't be more personal. So, why Kerry? If these voters are concerned with the war over other issues, why won't they back Bush? Because, I believe, they have bought into the notion that the administration has bungled the war. This is the line the Kerry campaign has been trying to sell, and this is the line that the mainstream media has succeeded in selling.

This is unfortunate, because I believe the President is right in seeing the spread of democracy as the only long-term solution to the problem of international terrorism. He has failed not because he had the wrong idea about how to achieve that long-term goal, but rather because he succumbed to the short-term thinking of his political advisors in waging the war. Think of how different the situation in Iraq if we had 100,000 more troops right from the beginning? Think of how different it would look if the President had asked for a declaration of war against Al-Qaeda and Afghanistan in the days following 9/11? If he had immediately called on Congress to expand the Army by two divisions? Sadly, the President bought into the notion of his DOD civilians that the nature of war has changed, that it can be fought with fewer men and more machines at less cost in blood and treasure. For this, George W. Bush will be cast out of office.

On Wednesday, if my prediction turns out to be correct, I will write about the challenges facing John Kerry. Among the most difficult, how he can battle his own base (if, in fact, he is willing to do so...a very big IF) to achieve success in Iraq.

As for the future of this blog, starting on Wednesday another presidential election cycle will begin. Win or lose, the Republicans will certainly begin the courtship of New Hampshire necessary to get candidates in position to win the nomination. If Kerry loses, then both parties will begin that process. From my perch here in the Granite State, as I have for over a decade, I will follow the process and report and comment on it. I hope to be back sometime on the air here in New Hampshire but, whether I am on the air or not, I plan to continue this blog. I hope it will be of some use to you.