POLL AVERAGE SHOWS BUSH IN LEAD

Over at the Horserace Blog, Jay Cost has averaged the last national polls together and come up with a Bush lead going into the election today.

Nation
Bush: 49.0211423%
Kerry: 46.6923845%
MOE: +/- 0.85%

(Respondents: 13,026; Polls Used: Harris 11/01, Newsweek 10/30, ABC News 11/01, Gallup 10/30, GWU/Battleground 11/01, Pew 10/31, NBC News/ WSJ 10/31, CBS News/ NY Times 11/01, Marist 11/02)

Based on this result, we can be 99.999% confident Bush presently has a nationwide lead. Based on this result, we can be 95% confident that Bush presently has a nationwide lead of at least 1.31%.

I hope these polls are right. But I'm not confident about them because of the turnout factor. Pollsters weigh their results by factoring in turnout based on historical voting patterns. If turnout is so much higher than normal, all bets are off.