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Saturday, February 25, 2006

It looks like al Qaeda is getting smarter. This attack on a Saudi oil operation may represent a change in tactics. Previously, it had been thought that they were reluctant to attack any of the Saudi oil infrastructure because they wish at some future time to run the country and, therefore, wouldn't want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. They may now have realized that there is no way they can achieve dominance in Saudi Arabia until the U.S. is defeated. They may also have realized that the way to defeat the U.S. is not to defeat their armed forces in direct combat (which they have learned over the years is not possible for them), and attacks on the U.S. homeland won't get it done (it just makes the Americans more belligerent), but driving the price of oil to record heights just might do it. If they can wreck the American economy then, perhaps, the American people will grow weary of the expense involved in this war and decide to elect people who will withdraw the troops from the Middle East and end support for friendly governments in the region. Crippling the Saudi oil industry would also wreck the Saudi economy, and might make the country ripe for revolution. Expect more attacks.

Just as I don't expect real sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program, I don't expect real cooperation in isolating Hamas. This story indicates I'm probably right about that. This column by Amir Taheri is a good analysis of why neither negotiations or limited military strikes will likely prove effective in stopping the Iranian nuclear program.

An Iranian official is threatening an attack on Israeli nuclear facilities if the U.S. uses military action against Iran.

Bill Kristol wonders if the West (especially the Bush administration) has the cajones to continue the fight with the Islamofascists to the end.

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