THE ONLY CHOICE

Now that the U.S. has offered to join direct talks with Iran on the nuclear question, let the second-guessing begin. The bottom line is actually pretty simple, we have no other good options. The American people are very unhappy about the war we are fighting in Iraq, they have absolutely no stomach for another war. Karl Rove knows this and Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice knows this, which is why President Bush is listening to them and not to Vice-President Cheney and Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. The President knows that the only possible course is to keep offering talks and incentives to Iran, just as the Europeans have been asking us to do. If the Iranians are really hell bent on becoming a nuclear power (which I believe they are), then they will reject those talks, or negotiate in bad faith. The Europeans have already moved much closer to the U.S. position on sanctions. Now the effort will be focused on convincing the Russians and Chinese. This may not be possible, but becomes more likely if the Iranians continue to stonewall. Even if the Russians and Chinese refuse to back sanctions, despite Iranian intransigence, the Europeans may be willing to go along with a package of tough sanctions once they are convinced that the Iranians will not play ball, and the Russians and Chinese will block U.N. action. This is not a very satisfying outcome, because the process will take time, which will allow the Iranians to continue with their clandestine program. But, at the end of the day, it will allow the U.S. to honestly say that it has tried every peaceful avenue with the Iranians and, more importantly, it will avoid a war that the American people do not want to fight. Of course, it could result in a larger war that we have to fight, but I have long thought that was inevitable. The American people are in the process of rejecting the Bush policy of fighting small, manageable wars in order to avoid the big one. This will make even greater the likelihood of the big one happening anyway.