ON THE BRINK

Israel is warning the Palestinians that if they don't hand over their kidnapped soldier, then the Israelis will assassinate the Hamas Prime Minister. Negotiations, brokered by the Egyptians, to reach some sort of deal to hand over the soldier, are not going well. The Israelis are in a tricky spot. Clearly, they would like to get rid of the Hamas-led government. The kidnapping of their soldier has given them the pretext to undertake that mission. They have already arrested dozens of Hamas people who are currently members of the Palestinian Parliament. But, if they launch a ground invasion of Gaza, there will be numerous casualties, including women and children (there have been no casualties so far, as the Israelis have been careful to limit their artillery bombardments to open fields and their initial airstrikes struck a power plant and some bridges). Their soldier will probably be killed upon an invasion and, unless they intend to re-occupy Gaza, it is difficult to see what they will have accomplished. Perhaps they are just bluffing, hoping to get the soldier back and forcing Hamas to lose face, as well as see so many of its top leaders go to Israeli prisons that it will be weakened when the struggle with Fatah resumes. If they do invade, they will face a united front of Hamas and Fatah. I expect the brinkmanship can only go on for so long before the Israelis have to make a decision one way or the other.