WHERE DOES IT GO FROM HERE?

As Israeli troops battle Hezbollah fighters in Southern Lebanon, in what appears to be another limited ground incursion, the question of how this will all play out is being debated by the chattering classes across the world. It is being widely reported that U.S. officials have given the Israelis the green light to continue to pound Hezbollah for another week before the U.S. will actively join those arguing for a cease-fire. Still, can the Israelis achieve their goals through military means?

Charles Krauthammer and Lawrence Kudlow argue that the only way to achieve those goals is by continuing their military offensive and expanding it with a ground invasion of Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah. David Ignatius argues just the opposite, that Israel's experience with its previous invasion and occupation of Lebanon from 1982 to 2000 provides compelling evidence that Hezbollah cannot be defeated militarily. Both Ignatius and Harold Meyerson bring up the specter of 1914, as I did in a previous post. But it is Robert Tracinski who has really gone off the deep end, along with some other like-minded souls.

If the problem is that the Syrian and Iranian regimes seek to preserve themselves and extend their influence by supporting terrorists across the Middle East, then the solution is to end those regimes--and we should devise a military response directed at that goal.

Excuse me? The President and Congress are now reeling from abysmal approval numbers that are almost entirely derived from our ongoing participation in an unpopular war in Iraq, and the combination of Iraq and Afghanistan are stretching our military resources to the breaking point, and this guy wants to militarily topple two more regimes? He, and those like him, just don't get it. AMERICANS HAVE NO STOMACH FOR ANY MORE WARS. Unless Syria or Iran attacks the U.S. directly and obviously, the American people are not going to politically back any effort to invade those countries and topple their regimes. And, please, don't start telling me about how we can do it with air power. The Air Force generals have been telling us since the 1930s that wars can be won with air power alone. Baloney. If we want to depose Ahmadinejad or Assad and install friendly regimes, it can only be done with a massive ground invasion, as we saw in Iraq. Then, of course, we would be left with the same kind of insurgency and civil strife, as both Iran and Syria are countries with unhappy minorities chafing under the rule of the parties in power.

Just as Israel cannot win its latest war within the political realities of the moment, so, too, we cannot win any military struggle with Iran and Syria under current conditions. Granted, this does not mean that Israel doesn't have the power to win its war, or that the U.S. does not have the power to defeat Iran or Syria. It is simply the fact that the political will does not exist in either country to do the things necessary to win.

For Israel, this would mean a massive ground invasion of Southern Lebanon and the wholesale massacre of the Shiite Lebanese population. No more Hezbollah, and no more potential Hezbollah recruits. The Sunni and Christian Lebanese would be invited to occupy the South after Israeli troops withdrew. This, of course, WILL NEVER HAPPEN. It is the way these problems were solved in the past, but no modern, democratic state would take such extreme measures.

For the U.S., it would mean building an Army of five million men, invading and occupying Syria and Iran, executing the Alawites in Syria and the Mullahs in Iran, and then dividing each country into smaller states, thus giving each aggrieved group some spoils and, thereby, buying their loyalty. Again, an ancient tried-and-true solution, but one that WILL NEVER HAPPEN.

So, where is it all going? Expect an unsatisfactory cease-fire in Lebanon that leaves Hezbollah intact and, therefore, another round of fighting in a few weeks or months. Expect the same in Gaza. Expect that Iran and Syria will continue to back terrorists who fight the Israelis in the region and who attack the U.S., her allies and interests around the world. War without end. Or, perhaps, until a nuclear detonation in Tel Aviv or New York arouses a medieval fury which ends the war in the ancient way, the way of the Romans. Just ask a Carthaginian about that kind of war, if you can find one.