END OF THE ISRAELI-HEZBOLLAH WAR?

After much diplomatic wrangling, the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed a resolution last night that will end the fighting in Lebanon, as long as the warring parties agree to it. So far, the Israeli and Lebanese governments have accepted the proposal. It is still unclear as to what Hezbollah will do, although they are represented in the Lebanese cabinet and their representatives approved of the proposal. The proposal will call for a "cessation of hostilities" at a date and time to be determined by the Secretary General in consultation with the Prime Ministers of Israel and Lebanon, followed by the expansion of the current UN force in southern Lebanon (UNIFIL) to 15,000 troops and the introduction of 15,000 troops from the Lebanese Army. All importation of weapons not explicitly authorized by the Lebanese government will be prohibited. All armed militias will be disarmed, as had been called for previously by UN Resolution 1559. It is expected that the cessation will happen sometime early next week, as the Lebanese government will officially accept the proposal today and the Israelis will do the same tomorrow. In the meantime, the Israelis are continuing with their previously announced ground offensive, presumably to clear Hezbollah from as much territory as possible in order to make the job of UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army easier. As they deploy, the Israelis will retreat, until eventually the Israelis will be completely out of Lebanon once again.

Can this work? If Hezbollah refuses to cooperate and continues to launch rockets into Israel, then the Israelis will continue to respond militarily, and the war will go on. Under such conditions the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL will not be able to deploy. If Hezbollah does stop firing rockets and allows the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL to deploy, the Israelis will be required to retreat. I expect that to happen (unless their Iranian masters in Tehran have another idea).

So, if the resolution is implemented, who won? Time will tell. But, I expect that Hezbollah will not disarm. I am not confident that the UNIFIL force and the Lebanese Army will have the motivation to force the issue. I am not confident that the Syrians and Iranians will cease in their efforts to re-arm and re-supply Hezbollah. I am not confident that the Lebanese government will be willing or able to stop them in those efforts. Therefore, if Hezbollah does not disarm and if they are re-supplied, then Hezbollah will be the winner. Certainly, while stopping the rocket attacks will be a short-term positive for Israel, if Hezbollah is still intact as an armed force, they will remain a danger to Israel.

Count me among the very skeptical when it comes to the success of this deal. Count me also among those who find the performance of the Israeli government and the IDF leadership as troubling, at best, and disheartening, at worst.