The President has de-classified the summary of the National Intelligence Estimate that was first issued back in April. You can read the summary here (via the New York Times website). It is about as bland a document as you will ever read. Its conclusions are all very elementary for anyone who has been following the progress of the war against the Islamofascists. It also reveals the selectivity of the leaks that led to front page stories in the Times and the Washington Post. Clearly, the leaks were designed to strike a political blow against the President, the GOP, and the current policy regarding Iraq. In that, they have succeeded, albeit temporarily. By releasing the full summary the President is creating a counter-story that will dominate the headlines for a couple of days and, no doubt, lead to a great deal of commentary either blasting the leaks or refuting the conclusions drawn from them. As a political matter, I suspect the story will work out as a wash, giving neither side any advantage they did not already have as we draw closer to the mid-term elections. The real mystery facing those of us who are trying to predict the outcome of the elections is just how independent, moderate, swing voters will react to the Iraq War and its relationship to the over-all War on Terror and how economic conditions, immigration reform, and other issues will play into the equation. Polls from just a few weeks ago seemed to give the Democrats a significant advantage. But recently, the numbers seem to be turning around for the President and the GOP. We may very well see another repeat of the 2002 and 2004 elections which resulted in narrow Republican victories. Unfortunately, unlike World Wars I and II, and more like Korea and Vietnam, we will continue to try and prosecute the war without national political unity. As the casualties mount and frustration builds, which it will, the disunity will grow even more pronounced. Eventually, if history is any guide, the American people will elect political leaders who will find a way to end the fight, probably via withdrawal, as in Vietnam.
David Ignatius criticizes the Democrats for their failure to honestly address the consequences of an American troop withdrawal from Iraq. Washington Post reporter Jonathan Finer decries the dishonest debate about Iraq.
Tony Blankley writes about the Pakistani surrender to the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Waziristan, an under-reported story that has tremendous significance in the prosecution of the War on Terror.
The Weekly Standard has this piece about the Islamization of Morocco. I suspect that the extremists are going to continue to gain ground throughout the Islamic world, even though the majority of Muslims probably do not want to live under Sharia law. Remember, the majority of Germans were not Nazis, yet the Nazis still won inside Germany. The majority of Russians were not Bolsheviks, yet the Bolsheviks still won inside Russia. Extremists win in domestic struggles all the time, primarily because they are more united, committed and ruthless than their usually dispirited and divided opposition. If the Islamic world continues to trend toward the extremists, the efforts by American and European politicians to convince their publics that Islam is a "religion of peace" will fall more and more upon deaf ears. Eventually, if the people of the West begin to really feel threatened, extremists in their countries will begin to make political gains. I still think the big war is coming, and nothing I can see across the globe gives me much hope of avoiding it.
2 Comments:
Ok, bland is a good description of the NIE report. Let me preface that I am not a tin foil hat wearer, but the paragraph in the NIE that states ("The loss of key leaders, particularly Osama Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups.") made me wonder. This document was published before al-Zarqawi was killed. Would it be crazy to think the CIA or NSA has fabricated audio or video of one, two or all three of the aforementioned to glean more intel on these groups and how they operate? It makes perfect sense to me. A suspected operative may think he is communicating with a Jihadi group but in reality he is talking with the U.S. government :-) Who was it that said "The bigger the lie the more they believe it"?
I can certainly believe that the CIA would be capable of running some creative intelligence operations along those lines, although I do not believe they are doing so in this case. I do, however, think it is possible that the recent story about Bin Laden's demise may have been a plant designed to try and smoke him out. Just a thought.
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