The Democrats held a televised debate here in New Hampshire last night, sparring on issues from Iraq to health care, and I, like the vast majority of New Hampshire voters, did not watch. So, I leave the job of analyzing the debate to others, including Bill Kristol, who thinks Hillary is the only Democrat who can win in November of 2008 (I agree with him). The Campaign Spot on the NRO website also has this post about the debate, which the writer watched from a Durham sports bar. I'm sure the patrons were riveted by it (yeah, right).

John Distaso of the Manchester Union Leader breaks down the latest poll data from News Hampshire. The bottom line? Hillary has solidified her lead and the GOP primary is up for grabs. What does it mean? If history is to be our guide it's bad news for Senator Clinton, as the front-runner has fared badly in the last few cycles. Remember what happened to Howard Dean? How about George W. Bush in 2000 and Bob Dole in '96? Each time the leader was lulled into complacency by their solid leads, or they made some significant mistakes, or both. Frankly, I just don't see that happening to Hillary. She is too smart, and her team is too experienced. Unless Senator Obama can start making some serious inroads into her support, especially among independents, who will be voting in large numbers in the Democratic primary, it seems like Hillary should earn a solid win here in the Granite State. Of course, it makes sense. This is, after all, another wartime election. We will be looking for a "tough guy" President. And, after all the mistakes of the Bush years, we want someone with a higher degree of competence. Hillary fits the bill better than any of the others on the Democratic stage (just as Margaret Thatcher always seemed a tougher bird than any of her male contemporaries). But, while that gives Hillary the edge in the Democratic primaries which have a high degree of independent participation (those contests dominated by Democratic base voters will probably be looking for a more reliably anti-war candidate), it also gives the eventual GOP nominee the edge in the general election, as the GOP is seen, still, as the National Security party.

Speaking of National Security, the Army's top general asked Congress for an opportunity to speak to them about the state of his organization, and he told them it is not good. The Congress and the Administration have only two choices, it seems to me. Either put a lot more resources into the Army, or get them out of the wars they are fighting. Put me down as advocating the more resources option.

Idealistic young people are flocking to the Ron Paul campaign. Using history as my guide, I predict their idealistic dreams will be dashed.

David Broder and Robert Novak, both great old reporters who came to Washington decades ago, take exactly contrary views on a bill to expand health insurance for poor children. Broder likes it, Novak doesn't.