US SENATE ELECTION PREVIEW: THE DEMOCRATS

Here is an early look at what might happen in November to the composition of the U.S. Senate. As you already know, the Senate is now controlled by the Democrats even though both parties hold 49 seats. This is due to the fact that the two Independents, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, caucus with the Democrats for organizational purposes, thus giving the Democrats the edge, 51-49.

In 2008, 35 seats are up for election. Of those, 23 are currently held by Republicans and 12 are currently held by Democrats. So, to start, the GOP is already at a disadvantage in their effort to regain control of the Senate. Let's first, though, look at the Democrats.

Here are the 12 seats up for election that are currently held by the Democrats:

Mark Pryor - Arkansas
Joe Biden - Delaware
Dick Durbin - Illinois
Tom Harkin - Iowa
Mary Landrieu - Louisiana
John Kerry - Mass.
Carl Levin - Michigan
Max Baucus - Montana
Frank Lautenberg - New Jersey
Tim Johnson - South Dakota
Jack Reed - Rhode Island
Jay Rockefeller - West Virginia

Of these twelve, there is almost unanimous opinion that only two are even somewhat vulnerable, and even relative political newcomers scanning that list of names can understand why. The two considered vulnerable are Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana.

Johnson's opponent is likely to be State Representative Joel Dykstra. While South Dakota is considered a "Red State" for purposes of Presidential analysis it has, like other Western states, oftentimes split it's representation in the Senate, most recently employing former Democratic Leader Tom Daschle. Therefore, just because Daschle was defeated last time 'round, one shouldn't assume that the remaining Democratic Senator would be vulnerable, especially since this one is recovering from a stroke that nearly killed him. The sympathy factor alone should give the race to Johnson.

Landrieu's likely GOP opponent is State Treasurer John Kennedy, but that's not her biggest problem, which is the changing demographics of Louisiana. Hundreds of thousands of people have left the state in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and many of them are African-Americans, who have been reliable Democratic voters. Louisiana also recently elected a Republican Governor. Still, if the Democrats have a good day, she should survive.

So, best case scenario for the GOP is that they take two seats from the Democrats, but I would only give them a small chance for that to happen. My conclusion? The Democrats hold all 12 of their available seats.

Tomorrow, a look at the Senate Republicans.