VICTORY

Two years ago, I was convinced that the Iraq War would be the determining factor in the 2008 election. At the time, it looked as if there was no end in sight, and certainly no possible way to achieve victory. Therefore, it seemed to me that the Democrats would make tremendous gains, and win the Presidency, because the American people would throw out the bums they held responsible for a failed war, as they did in 1952 and 1968. Well, just as other issues played a role in those elections, and just as perception trumps reality, so now we face a very different situation in Iraq, and a very different dynamic for the upcoming election.

Yesterday, President Bush reversed course and publicly admitted that some type of time frame for American troop withdrawals from Iraq is now possible. He did so within the context of the ongoing negotiations with the Iraqi government on a Status of Forces Agreement that would govern American troops remaining in Iraq. We have such agreements with governments all over the world. As a U.S. Army soldier in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) from 1986-89, my presence and that of my comrades was governed by such an agreement (allowing me to enter and leave the country without a passport, for instance, and drive with a military driver's license, etc.), so I know how it works. Obviously, it would be under different conditions in a war-torn country like Iraq, but the principles are the same. The Iraqi government does not want to find itself in a semi-colonial position, as they were under the British in the 1920s, nor even the perception of such a position. Thus, it appears likely now that, no matter who wins the election, American forces will start leaving Iraq, probably in substantial numbers, in 2009. This has tremendous implications for the election, as it takes the Iraq War nearly off the table when people go to the polls.

Except for one thing. As Ralph Peters points out in this piece about Al Qaeda, and the editors of The New York Sun point out in this piece about Iraq, it appears now that we have won the war. Al Qaeda is on the run, discredited in the Arab world primarily due to it's brutality directed against Arabs (both Sunni and Shia) in Iraq, and the insurgency and criminality that have bedeviled Iraqis is being put down by an increasingly effective Iraqi Army. The only place that Al Qaeda has left is Afghanistan, primarily because they have like-minded fundamentalist local allies (the Taliban) in parts of Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. (It is indeed ironic that a movement born among the Arabs is too medieval for its own people). Therefore, if this victory (or perception of victory) begins to take hold in the electorate, how will that impact their vote? Does it take Iraq (and the so-called "War on Terror") off the table? Or does it remind people that Obama wanted to cut-and-run while it was McCain who advocated the strategy that eventually brought victory in Iraq?

Answer those questions, and you will know who will achieve victory in November.