Google

Thursday, September 18, 2008

With yet another day of falling stocks, there is much speculation as to the extent of the crisis and how it might impact the Presidential race.

It might be the worst crisis since the '30s, with no end in sight...

The U.S. financial system resembles a patient in intensive care. The body is trying to fight off a disease that is spreading, and as it does so, the body convulses, settles for a time and then convulses again. The illness seems to be overwhelming the self-healing tendencies of markets. The doctors in charge are resorting to ever-more invasive treatment, and are now experimenting with remedies that have never before been applied. Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, walking into a hastily arranged meeting with congressional leaders Tuesday night to brief them on the government's unprecedented rescue of AIG, looked like exhausted surgeons delivering grim news to the family.

Fed and Treasury officials have identified the disease. It's called deleveraging, or the unwinding of debt. During the credit boom, financial institutions and American households took on too much debt. Between 2002 and 2006, household borrowing grew at an average annual rate of 11%, far outpacing overall economic growth. Borrowing by financial institutions grew by a 10% annualized rate. Now many of those borrowers can't pay back the loans, a problem that is exacerbated by the collapse in housing prices. They need to reduce their dependence on borrowed money, a painful and drawn-out process that can choke off credit and economic growth.

Read the whole article. Remember the bottom line is too much debt, and then tremble when you consider all the unfunded liabilities that are piling up at the door of the American taxpayer.

So, how will the financial crisis impact the Presidential race?

David Broder thinks it will help Obama.

Timothy Garton Ash thinks it will help McCain.

I think it is a wash, primarily because while the current Republican President is unpopular, the Democratic Congress is even more unpopular. If anything, I give a slight edge to McCain, as he seems the tougher, more decisive leader.

Todd Domke outlines why he believes Obama is not leading the race, and it is almost entirely due to his own mistakes.

Clifford May examines the foreign policy aspect of the equation, and gives us the questions we ought to ask of ourselves and the candidates before making our decision.

Karl Rove also examines the race, and says Obama's mistake is to attack McCain, rather than provide a positive vision for his own candidacy.

This election is not fundamentally about Mr. McCain. It is much more about people's persistent doubts concerning Mr. Obama. The only way to reassure them is to provide a compelling, forward-looking agenda. That sounds obvious, but the Obama campaign seems to be betting on making Mr. McCain an unacceptable choice by striking at his character. Mr. McCain has absorbed many harder blows than anything the Obama campaign can throw his way.

The folks on the Left will, no doubt, believe that Rove is deliberately trying to mislead them with this, and assume that he really fears an all-out attack on McCain-Palin. They will even more strenuously advise the Obama people to attack and, thus, reveal "the truth" about John McCain and Sarah Palin. Rove knows this, which is why he feels perfectly safe to give an honest assessment of the campaign.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home