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Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Election Day. At last. Get out and vote.

The A.P. defines the concept of "landslide".

George Will lays out the numbers to give us some historical perspective as we watch the election returns tonight.

Obama wins in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location here in New Hampshire.

The latest RealClearPolitics Electoral Map, which assigns each state to a candidate based on the latest polling average, shows a solid Obama win, 338-200. The only way to reverse the scenario is to flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada into the McCain camp (all states that went for Bush in 2004). I just don't believe it will happen.

What do I think will happen? For almost two years I have been writing on this blog that I believe an enormous anti-Republican tide has been building, driven mainly by dissatisfaction with the fact that we have troops fighting in two wars that don't seem to have an end in sight. This belief was based on my reading of the elections of 1952 and 1968, when incumbent Presidents were mired in unpopular wars. In both cases the party that held the White House lost it to the opposition. Generally speaking, when an incumbent President is very unpopular, as is now the case with George W. Bush, his party suffers when the voters go to the polls. This is true with off-year elections and in Presidential elections. I suspect that we will see an enormous turnout today, and it will lead to a big victory for Obama and the Democrats. Ironically, this victory will not be driven, as I thought it would be, by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Rather, it will be driven by the economic anxiety that has gripped the nation. Americans have spent the last several months watching as their investment portfolios have collapsed, and seen their home values plummet. In recent weeks many have started to see jobs being lost, and just about everyone is afraid for their own job. This is a perfect storm. War, economic uncertainty, and a terribly unpopular incumbent President. It is a formula for the absolute repudiation of the President's party. Thus, I expect a Republican debacle tonight. Obama will win comfortably (although not by as large a margin as he might have, since there are doubts about his experience and his ideological outlook), with at least 300 electoral votes and at least 52% of the popular vote. The Democrats will win at least 7 Senate seats, and might get 8 (although I do not believe they will get to a filibuster-proof majority of 60...which might be just wishful thinking on my part). Expect a 25-30 seat gain in the House.

I hope I am wrong.

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