ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL

There are a plethora of opinion pieces analyzing Tuesday's election results on the Internet today, and I won't bother posting links to them, since you probably can find them yourselves without too much trouble. I will post a link to this piece by Jay Cost, however, primarily because it represents what I believe to be the best analysis one can make of the situation. It is the best not because it presents an overview of the elections held across the country on Tuesday, but because it narrowly addresses one election, the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district which filled the seat held by the late John Murtha. It is not simply because the piece is a very good analysis of the district and the election, which it is, but because it points out the most important truth one must embrace when seeking meaning in any election...as Tip O'Neill said, "All politics is local".

It is undeniable that national trends exist, and it is undeniable that national trends have played a role in past elections, especially those which see one party or the other sweep into power. But it is also undeniable that local conditions are most important when analyzing a local race, especially when you are dealing with a gerrymandered congressional district (which means all congressional districts). Who lives there? Who usually votes? Are they white, black, Hispanic, Asian? Are they union members, farmers, ranchers, suburban professionals? These things matter. In his piece, Jay Cost looks at who lives in PA-12, and how they usually vote. He finds that it is a heavily unionized, white working class, Democratic district. They went big for Hillary in the '08 primary, but loyally voted for Obama in the general. In essence, we are talking about a district where conservative Democrats still vote Democratic. So, coming to conclusions about national trends based on the results in one district is problematic, to say the least.

Want to know how it will all turn out in November? Look at each district individually, examine the advantages and disadvantages of each candidate, and understand what is most important to voters on the day they turn out to vote. Complicated, yes? Which, of course, is why even the smartest political analysts are so often wrong when it comes to broadly predicting election results.