THOUGHTS ON THE MID-TERM ELECTIONS

Every day, almost without exception, I spend time in the morning navigating the Internet, reading news and opinion pieces that I find interesting. Most days I take a few minutes to put links to the ones I found most compelling on this blog, along with a bit of commentary of my own. As we get closer to the mid-term elections, more and more pieces appear with some kind of analysis of the mood of the electorate and the possible outcome that will ensue due to that mood. Generally, columnists who are partisans on one side or the other see things through their own rose-colored glasses. Sometimes I read them, sometimes I don't. I have covered elections as a newsperson, talk show producer, and talk host since 1990. I have been following American politics since, as a boy, I watched the Watergate hearings on television in the Summer of 1973. I have studied politics in school (and will some more as I attempt to earn a Masters Degree in Political Science starting this Fall), and watched it up close in real life. Cutting through all the noise and confusion I have come to one conclusion...the best we can do is make an educated guess as to the behavior of the American electorate.

How well I remember the New Hampshire primary of 2008 when, as an analyst for WBZ radio, I felt pretty confident, as did most every other analyst, most of whom much more prominent (and wealthy) than me, that Barack Obama would win the primary over Hillary Clinton. After all, he seemed to have all the momentum, and all the polls showed a substantial lead. But, as the early returns filtered in, and I looked over the breakdown of voting town-by-town, my knowledge of voting patterns and the demographics of each region of the state (learned from covering New Hampshire elections since 1994) led me to the conclusion that Hillary would win. I still feel pretty good about making that early call (and, of course, I was not alone, as just about everyone else who had similar experience could see the same thing, including my co-analysts at the time on WBZ, Arnie Arnesen and Michael Goldman). But it taught a lesson, which we already knew, but sometimes forget. Polls don't always catch what is happening, even the ones taken at the last minute (which are usually the most accurate).

So, take all the commentary on the mid-term elections with a grain of salt. We are all working from poll numbers, and a sense of historical patterns. But we really don't know. Will the President's job approval, which now stands at 44% approve, 48% disapprove, still be below 50%, which usually means bad news for his party? Will Republican partisans be more energized than Democratic partisans, as seems to be the case at this moment? Will independent voters swing heavily to GOP candidates, as current polling would seem to indicate? All these questions can only be answered when the votes are tallied.

Until then, relax, enjoy the fine Summer weather, and remain hopeful that the old saying is still true, that "God takes care of drunks, children, and the United States of America".